We discuss our latest views and research on trend following speed
The global lockdown poses a challenge for managers who seek to predict prices using fundamental models.
We assess which methods are most pertinent for different trading strategies, and explain why a robust research process is vital to Winton’s approach.
Our research explores alternative approaches for assigning sectors to the S&P 500 using stock price covariance and natural language processing.
We discuss our latest views and research on trend following speed
It took an eminent statistician to burst one of the most prominent equities bubbles in history, by which time stockbrokers were sometimes deemed sexier than movie stars.
David Harding talks to the Australian Financial Review about Winton’s source of competitive advantage.
Commodity cartels are a natural subject for financial market research, since effective syndicates set and control asset prices.
How speculative attacks on currencies led to the East Asian Crisis of 1997.
Money for nothing: A history of mania in John Law's Mississippi Company stock.
Disruptions to trade during the American Civil War and the reigns of Napoleon and Louis XIV had long-term consequences for financial markets.
Our analysis shows that the market's opinion of economic data releases changes through time.
In a wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker, David Harding spoke about artificial intelligence, Winton’s research interests, and why the firm knows when it achieves a breakthrough.
A stable of lesser known speculative manias including Japan's rabbit mania, poultry fever and the ostrich feather boom.
Unique data spanning 50 years’ of monthly black market rates reveals insights ranging from the extent of the Soviet Union’s dependence on the shadow economy to the consequences of Colombia opening its “sinister window”.
Charts are widely used in finance. As well as representing information efficiently, they can reveal relationships or anomalies in data. But their effectiveness or otherwise is a function of the choices made during chart construction.
On the centenary of the Great War's conclusion, it is instructive to examine how this historic event affected investors and changed global capital markets.
From the literal approach of the 1920s to bandwagon effects during tech bubbles, this examination of a century of US stock market data reveals the changing fashions in company naming.
The panic of 1825 was the culmination of several years of euphoric investment in sovereign debt and precious metals that included one of the most remarkable swindles of all time: bonds sold in the name of a made-up country, called Poyais.
All aboard the gravy train (1845 - 1947). The advent of steam travel sparked a boom in railway stocks in England and even Austria. But as the boom hit the skids, families were ruined and several banks failed.
We compare trade between the two countries in 1926 with the situation now. See the extent to which the nature of goods, and import and export dependencies have changed.
Our third instalment of historic follies charts banking crises in 14th century Florence and 19th century Brazil, an 1869 attempt to corner the gold market, Australia’s nickel boom of 1969 and the Russian Rouble crisis of 1998.
With several technology companies nearing trillion-dollar equity valuations, we examine the record of firms that surpassed previous symbolic milestones.
We examine an ecology-inspired alternative to the efficient market hypothesis and find that it better captures properties of real-world financial markets.
The central banks of the world’s most influential nations have for the past two decades been dominated by economists. This hasn’t always been the case.
A history of technical analysis, from 18th century Imperial Japan to Bitcoin price movements today – informed by material from Winton’s archive.
Why not give your nearest and dearest the gift of a classic financial market boardgame? Here we present 10 ideas from the Winton archive.
Winton's in-depth research shows that funds exhibiting the characteristics typically associated with hedge funds manage far less than $3 trillion.
The tracking of shipping routes is an oft-cited achievement of modern data science. But comparable data has been collected for centuries—as our video shows.
Hopes vested in AI capabilities have often run ahead of the reality – just as they did several decades ago.
My personal recollections from the financial market mayhem that began in earnest on 19 October 1987.
We believe some things because of the evidence of our senses: that it is daytime, that the floor is solid, that there are other people in the room.
The typical Australian analogy for the China-fuelled expansion in commodities trading would probably be the mid-19th century gold rush.
A recent Longer View article looked at standout commodities performer palladium. Now, for the dunce of the class: cocoa.
The emissions scandal has hit carmakers’ shares, but has also proved a fillip for another type of investment.
The gas market has experienced many shocks stretching back into the 19th century.
On June 5, 1967, Israeli jets launched the opening salvo of a short, but consequential conflict that shut the Suez Canal for eight years.
Oil-producing countries are fretting ahead of the next OPEC meeting, given the seeming powerlessness of the cartel to influence the oil price.
Understanding long-term patterns in global trade can serve as a useful window into economic and financial market developments.
A recent report described a commodity trader buying up thousands of swimming pools’ worth of sugar, potentially moving the market.
The recent surge in bitcoin prices, fuelled by capital flight from China, evinces a growing desire to revamp (or circumvent) the world’s monetary order.
Warren Buffett has become established as perhaps the greatest investor of all time.
In the lead up to the recent US presidential election, it was widely predicted that the US stock market would crash in the event of a Trump victory.
Perhaps the most striking manifestation of the 2000s copper boom was the sight of charred human remains dangling from power cables.
Over the last two or three years, a number of new, interrelated fashions have emerged in the institutional asset management world.
As featured in The Telegraph.
Equities and bonds are often assumed to be negatively correlated. This hasn’t always been true.
The UK’s Vote to leave Europe is a surprise, but it can hardly be said to have come out of the blue.
The Leave campaign is passionate, sincere and competent. I believe it also to be profoundly misguided.
Market shocks may feel like they are becoming more common, but the data suggests otherwise.
Imagine if the economy as we know it was built on a myth.
The countdown to Britain's EU referendum has started.
Does globalisation mean that stock returns are related more to sector than country performance?
October has been the most volatile month for stocks on average over the past 87 years. Is this due to chance?