One notable aspect of the current diplomatic tensions between Qatar and its Arab neighbours has been the relative poise of natural gas spot prices. The Gulf state accounts for a third of LNG exports, and LNG in turn makes up approximately a third of total international trade in natural gas. It is early days, however, particularly as commodities traders have been sufficiently concerned to route LNG cargoes around Africa rather than through the Suez Canal, and to charter smaller ships to mitigate the impact of potential holdups.
Previous market disruptions include faulty pipelines in 19th century Pittsburgh, the machinations of energy companies like Enron in the early 2000s, and natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In the aftermath of Katrina, natural gas prices doubled. There has been a combination of infrastructure investments, source diversification and new legislation during the market’s existence. But a cursory glance at the range of prices over the last 10 years suggests the current stasis may not last for long.