Samuel zeller 337869
Pacific Ocean German Antique Victorian Engraving 1896 3000X2000Px Crop2
Economies of Scales: How to Chart Long-Term Time Series

Charts are widely used in finance. As well as representing information efficiently, they can reveal relationships or anomalies in data. But their effectiveness or otherwise is a function of the choices made during chart construction.

22 November 2018
Using Differential Privacy To Protect Personal Data Gettyimages 499543152
Using Differential Privacy to Protect Personal Data

A Winton research project with UC Berkeley used a technique for adding noise to datasets that makes it impossible to identify individuals, while preserving broader statistical patterns.

4 September 2018
Systematic Methods for Classifying Equities

Our research explores alternative approaches for assigning sectors to the S&P 500 using stock price covariance and natural language processing.

23 August 2018
If We Dont Believe Markets Are Efficient What Do We Believe Getty Images 874907174
If We Don’t Believe Markets are “Efficient”, What Do We Believe?

We examine an ecology-inspired alternative to the efficient market hypothesis and find that it better captures properties of real-world financial markets.

14 March 2018
Challenging Assumptions Of Equity Bond Correlations Sergiu Valena 428608
Challenging Equity-Bond Correlation Assumptions

Equities and bonds are often assumed to be negatively correlated. This hasn’t always been true.

31 July 2016
Are Markets Becoming More Unstable
Are Markets Becoming More Unstable?

Market shocks may feel like they are becoming more common, but the data suggests otherwise.

31 March 2016
The Importance Of Sector And Country In Stock Returns Getty Images 623742500
The Role of Sector and Country in Stock Returns

Does globalisation mean that stock returns are related more to sector than country performance?

31 January 2016
Seasonal Volatility And The Multiplicity Effect
Seasonal Volatility and the Multiplicity Effect

October has been the most volatile month for stocks on average over the past 87 years. Is this due to chance?

30 November 2015
The Hidden Costs Of Global Index Tracking Mathew Schwartz 397471
The Hidden Costs of Global Index Tracking

We find hidden costs of about 10 basis points per year for the naïve global index tracker.

30 October 2015
Rebalancing Hedge Fund Portfolios Arnaud Mesureur 92596
Rebalancing Hedge Fund Portfolios

When investing in multiple hedge funds, investors eventually face the challenge of finding an effective rebalancing methodology.

23 October 2015
Testing Our Strategy For Testing Our Strategies
Testing our Strategy for Testing our Strategies

A unique experiment allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of our research process in a relatively short time.

31 August 2015
Value Size And Momentum A Likely Example Of Selection Bias Paul Carmona 391752
Value, Size and Momentum – A Likely Example of Selection Bias

Publication bias could have a part to play in the disappointing performance of popular equity indicators.

31 January 2015
Sp 500 Dispersion And Volatility Vladimir Malyutin 94700
S&P 500 Dispersion and Volatility

We put the recent fall in US equity volatility into context.

30 November 2014
The Power Of Diversification
The Power of Diversification

Adding an uncorrelated strategy to a portfolio can improve its risk-adjusted performance.

31 October 2014
Value Investing The Long View
Value Investing: The Long View

We caution against drawing conclusions from short time series and emphasise the importance of acknowledging the uncertainty on performance estimates.

31 August 2014
Profit Mirages In The Data2
Profit Mirages in the Data

Without an appropriate understanding of data, it can be too easy to discover fool’s gold.

30 June 2014
The Trouble With Tracking Error Ricardo Gomez Angel 223077
The Trouble With Tracking Error

Often tracking error is incorrectly defined ‒ with important consequences.

30 June 2014
The Global Monkey
The Global Monkey

Randomly selected global equity portfolios have outperformed market-capitalisation-weighted portfolios over the past 15 years.

30 April 2014
Roll Yield And Futures Investing Dawid Zawila 251904
Roll Yield and Futures Investing

Roll yield, a source of profits for trend followers, is the return captured when a futures contract converges to the spot price.

25 April 2014
The Meaning Of Correlation Ethan Weil 407982
The Meaning of Correlation

The long-term correlation of trend following with equities is effectively zero. But there are many misconceptions regarding what this means.

18 April 2014
Portfolio Over Optimisation Steve Huntington 378974
Portfolio Over Optimisation

Ignoring uncertainty in portfolio construction can lead to a large gulf between the realised and expected performance of a strategy.

28 February 2014
Changes In Market Correlation Vitaliy Paykov 212215
Changes in Market Correlation

Analysis of the correlation structure between futures markets, S&P 500 stocks and trend-following strategies over the past 50 years.

31 January 2014
Hidden Costs In Index Tracking Getty Images 157611836
The Hidden Costs of Index Tracking

We estimate a hidden turnover cost of about 20 basis points per year for investors tracking the S&P 500.

24 January 2014
Hypothetical Performance Of Ctas
Hypothetical Performance of CTAs

We find evidence that hypothetical performance data can be significantly over-optimistic compared to subsequent realised performance.

27 December 2013
Blinded By Optimism David Siglin 87982
Blinded By Optimism

"Meta-overfitting" may be endemic in finance as well as other fields of research.

20 December 2013
Historical Performance Of Trend Following Nicolas Tissot 217876
Historical Performance of Trend Following

We consider if trend-following performance is dependent on trading speed.

6 December 2013
Sorting The Sheep From The Goats
Sorting the Sheep from the Goats

The determination of good from bad investments using quantitative measures.

31 January 2004