The “war to end all wars”, as it subsequently became known, was sparked by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian empire.
For almost a month following the archduke’s assassination, financial markets failed to react. There was no discounting of value in the Dow Jones Industrial Average or German government bonds at the prospect of war. It was only when Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia that panicked selling ensued, forcing markets to close.
While many assets suffered during the war, US stocks and commodity prices at times exhibited strong uptrends. And a notable expansion in sovereign debt issuance contributed to a step-change in the evolution of global capital markets.
The five charts that follow outline some of the more notable market events from 1914 to 1918.
1. Investors barely flinched at the assassination of Franz Ferdinand
The outbreak of hostilities caught investors by surprise. The assassination did not significantly move markets, and newspaper reports remained optimistic for weeks after the event.